Most ecommerce brands set BFCM revenue targets by picking a number that feels ambitious without checking whether their email program can actually support it.
This post covers how to set BFCM email revenue goals that are grounded in your actual program data rather than what you hope to achieve.
Key Takeaways:
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Why Most BFCM Revenue Goals are Set Wrong
The most common approach to setting BFCM goals is top-down: Decide on a total revenue target, divide it by channel, and assign email a portion. The problem is that this approach starts with the number you want rather than the number your program can support, which makes the goal motivating but not particularly useful for planning.
A bottom-up approach starts with what your email program can actually support based on your current list size, engagement rates, average order value, and historical email revenue share. The goal that comes out of this process may be lower than what you hoped for, or it may be higher, but it will be grounded in data you already have.
The 3 Inputs You Need Before Setting a Goal
Before calculating a BFCM email revenue target, pull these three numbers from your account:
- Email Revenue Share – This is the percentage of your total store revenue that email currently drives. For ecommerce brands with a well-built program, this typically sits between 25-35%. If yours is lower, that’s useful context for what BFCM email can realistically contribute.
- Average Order Value (AOV) During BFCM – If you have prior BFCM data, use last year’s AOV. If not, use your standard AOV as a starting point. Note that BFCM’s AOV often differs from the rest of the year because of the offer structure and what products you’re promoting.
- Engaged List Size – This is the number of subscribers who have clicked in the last 90 days. This is your realistic sending audience for BFCM campaigns, not your total list size, which includes unengaged contacts who are unlikely to convert.
How to Calculate Your BFCM Email Revenue Target
This simple framework gives you a directional estimate, not a guarantee.
The actual number will vary based on your offer strength, subject line performance, and how well your list is segmented. But it gives you a number you can actually plan against.
| Input | Example | Where to Find It (In Klaviyo) |
|---|---|---|
| Engaged List Size | 25,000 contacts | Contacts who clicked in the last 90 days |
| Expected BFCM Campaign Send Volume | 3-5 campaigns to engaged segments | Based on your planned campaign calendar |
| Estimated Click Rate Per Campaign | 2-4% (use your recent average as a baseline) | Klaviyo campaign reports |
| Estimated Conversion Rate From Click | 2-5% (higher during BFCM due to offer strength) | Klaviyo campaign reports or Shopify |
| Average Order Value | $65 | Shopify or Klaviyo |
| Estimated Campaign Revenue | 25,000 x 3.5% clicks x 3% conversion x $65 x 4 campaigns = approx. $68,000 | Calculated from above |
| Add Flow Revenue (Abandoned Cart, Welcome, Post-Purchase) | Typically 40-60% of total email revenue during BFCM | Klaviyo flow reports |
How to Track Whether You’re on Target During BFCM
Once you set your goals, the most useful way to track progress during BFCM is by revenue per recipient (RPR), meaning the total email revenue divided by emails delivered, not total revenue alone. This normalizes for audience size and lets you compare performance across sends of different sizes, which is more informative than a running total that grows with every send regardless of efficiency.
- Track RPR separately for campaigns and flows so you can see which part of your program is performing and which isn’t generating results.
- Check flow performance daily during BFCM, so underperformance shows up early enough to act on it rather than only after the event ends.
What to Do If You Have No Prior BFCM Data
If this is your first BFCM or your first year tracking email revenue specifically, use your best non-holiday month as a conservative baseline. Then, apply a multiplier based on the additional volume and offer strength BFCM brings. A common approach is to treat BFCM as 2-3 times stronger than a regular month for email revenue, though this varies significantly by category, list size, and offer.
Whatever target you set this year, track revenue per recipient by campaign and by flow so next year’s goal-setting has real data to work from rather than another estimate.
For a step-by-step breakdown of how to prepare your program before BFCM so it can actually hit the goals you set, read our BFCM Email Preparation Checklist.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1. How do you set a BFCM revenue goal for email marketing?
Start with your engaged list size, average order value, and current email revenue share.
Build a bottom-up estimate based on how many campaigns you plan to send, your expected click and conversion rates, and what your flows typically contribute. This gives you a target rooted in your program’s actual capacity.
Q2. What is a realistic BFCM email revenue target?
It depends on your list size, offer strength, and how well your program is set up.
As a directional reference, a well-prepared email program with strong segmentation and a competitive BFCM offer can generate 2-3 times its typical monthly email revenue during the BFCM period.
Q3. How do I calculate email revenue per recipient for BFCM?
Divide total email-attributed revenue by the number of emails delivered for each campaign or flow.
This normalizes for audience size and lets you compare performance across sends of different sizes, which is more useful than total revenue alone when evaluating BFCM performance.
Q4. What if I have no BFCM email data from previous years?
Use your best non-holiday month as a conservative baseline and apply a multiplier based on the additional volume and offer strength BFCM brings. More importantly, set up proper revenue tracking by campaign and flow this year so next year’s goal-setting has real data to work from.
